Update: Bloomberg just entered the primaries. Just when you thought it couldn’t get worse. He’s late to the game, but hey…he’s slightly more acceptable than the rest of the Dem fi
I had just wrapped up the second edition of this book during the 2016 general election. In it, I got one key prediction wrong. I said Trump was looking weak going into the fall and might well loose the election to BJ Bill’s wife.
Then, the FBI found criminal evidence against Hillary on Arnold Horshak’s laptop. You remember him…Huma Abedin’s dumb ass husband?
Anyway, that is the one prediction and/or policy position I will own as being wrong. But I NAILED IT again and again through the rest of the book! Damn, you’d think Bernie Sanders read every word and used it all (process – not policy).
I took the price down to poverty royalty levels. Trust me when I say this won’t pay the mortgage. But I want as many people as possible RIGHT and LEFT to read this before we get down to brass tacks in the 2020 election.
There seems to be tremendous misunderstanding of rule 40b of THE RULES OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY [1. AS ADOPTED BY THE
2012 REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION TAMPA, FLORIDA AUGUST 27, 2012 **AMENDED BY THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE ON APRIL 12, 2013, JANUARY 24, 2014, MAY 9, 2014& AUGUST 8, 2014**] among even supposedly capable reporters and journalists/bloggers. This misunderstanding of the rules could very well serve to exacerbate the growing friction surrounding a possible open convention.
I will attempt to clarify the rule for anyone who might be interested in actually knowing the facts. I am of the mind that many see things in the rule that aren’t there to forward their own agenda or to elevate their candidate to an imaginary status. Others simply get it wrong.
Many people think if someone gets to the convention floor with a plurality of votes, and a majority of delegates in 8 states, then that candidate must be given the nomination or some kind of affront must have been committed. But Rule 40b, found in the first link above, states with crystal clarity that the eight state delegate majority only permits a candidate to enter his name for nomination at the convention. It means nothing in terms of that candidate actually being nominated.
The growing chorus among Trump supporters is that if they have the PLURALITY of delegates by July (leaving aside the existing byzantine rules governing each state’s processes) that Trump should be the nominee. Well, sorry to disappoint everyone, but at the moment, the rules in place at the time all candidates entered the race DO NOT say that.
To get the nomination before the convention a candidate must have garnered 1237 (a MAJORITY or more than 50%) of all delegates. If no one has achieved that, then the rules for nominating a candidate at the convention are in effect. This is not a plot to stop Trump. This is not the establishment attacking anyone. It is a simple case of following the rules. You know, rules; those things Democrats and College crybabies like to ignore.
At the moment, there is no ethical reason to suspend the rules in favor anyone. So, if we get to July and no one has the 1237 required for nomination, all three remaining candidates must demonstrate that they have carried the majority of delegates in 8 states in order to advance to the convention as a candidate. It is altogether possible that John Kasich will fall short of this mark (I can hear John now, whining to anyone who will listen, “But hey, I carried Ohio. I should be allowed to compete at the convention.” Sorry, dude.) That will likely leave Cruz and Trump.
Now, if no winner emerges from the first vote, the chairman will call for repeated votes between Cruz and Trump to see if anything shakes loose in either direction. After the first vote is taken, many delegates will not longer be bound to the candidate to which they were previously bound. There is the possibility that a new player or a previous candidate who had suspended their campaign could declare their candidacy. In such an event the rules committee could provide for that new candidate.
So far, there is nothing here that anyone can hypothetically cry about in advance of the convention. If any of these eventualities occur and an unreasonable or violent outburst result, the damage done to the party will be on the heads of those facilitating or committing unreasonable or violent acts, not the GOP.
If however, the rules of the convention, or qualifying for the convention, should suddenly be changed to the disadvantage of any candidate – OR – should the GOP blatantly take sides against any or all of the primary field and put forward a ringer to compete at the convention, then all damage to the party will be on the GOP itself.
The rules in place are perfectly reasonable. To quell the rising rancor in the GOP, the mature, ethical and responsible approach would be the following:
GOP: Butt out. Enforce the rules and let the voters decide who they want as a candidate.
Candidates: quit crying about process and get back to the issues, primary among which is the economy and jobs. Leave process to the GOP (so long as the GOP respects point 1).
Voters: Pay attention to what candidates are saying and make your decisions based on the quality of the argument. Don’t be conned by empty populism (Trump) or identity politics (Cruz). Make them work for your vote.
My old boss used to say, give me the bottom line up front. He used the acronym BLUF all the time.
With that in mind, I know there are many people who won’t need the detail in this piece. So I will sate my case here. In this election, much more important than who we make president is who we send to the DC and state legislatures. No matter who goes to the White House we need to send them with a huge Republican majority. You can noodle that out for yourself, take it on faith or read on to understand why this is critical for voters in ANY party.
As of last night, 3/1/16, we need to get our heads around only two possible scenarios for the remaining election season. One is Donald Trump getting the nomination. No one has been harder on Trump than I have. Some have called him more names, but those people tend to ride on pure emotion, lacking documentation or argument. I’d like to think my remarks carry a bit more heft. I do not apologize for a syllable of those remarks.
I will continue to pound away on him unless and until he is nominated. That said, I will support him in the general election. In such a case, I would be asked to choose between a narcissistic populist and a felon. As potentially dangerous as Trump’s personality disorder might be to the nation, we already know that Clinton is a criminal. People who think they are clever usually correct me on this point and like a college professor put a finger in the air and say, “alleged criminal.”
At the risk of breaking progressive hearts everywhere, the words alleged and allegation are restrictions placed upon the police and the courts who are required by law to treat everyone as innocent as a matter of gaining a clear disposition of a case. I have no such burden. We KNOW Clinton had highly classified material on an illegal server (that is not legal theory) in her home. We KNOW she had cut and pasted some classified material to unmarked documents to facilitate the transmission of those documents across her illegal server (again, not legal theory). We know she convinced a low-level IT tech to install the illegal server, yet another crime. And these were just the latest string of offenses in a career blanketed with criminal or unethical activity.
We don’t KNOW Trump will act intentionally against the citizens. So that low bar persuades me that if what I am about to discuss does not happen and Trump becomes the Republican of record, I will vote for him. But to make sending Trump to the White House a responsible move, we must send him with HUGE coattails. Most people haven’t even considered this yet. We get fascinated with all the hype surrounding presidential politics and forget there are more important things to consider. I’ll explain in a bit.
There is only one scenario that would spare me this unpleasantness of voting for the huckster. Glenn Beck – yeah, I know, drama queen – outlined a suggestion on his radio show today that I have favored for a while now. It’s likelihood of occurring is minimal considering the mindset and egos of the players. Eric Bolling[1. totally in the bag for Trump] used very sound figures this evening to demonstrate that the suggestion I am about to offer is the only sound option.
In an effort to show the Trump is inevitable, Bolling laid out the likely impact of the next several states. I found it so useful I took a shot right off the TV. WTA = Winner take all.
If you examine what the polls say about the upcoming states, many of which are WTA, you must admit that a three-way match up of Trump, Cruz and Rubio, almost guarantees a Trump lock in just a few weeks. If Kasich figures at all, he just accelerates that outcome.
So what to do? Well, as Beck suggested, Rubio should drop out and Cruz should name him now as a running mate. Beck went on to say the two should name cabinet members and their pick for Supreme Court justices as well, but that isn’t necessary.
For all the Rubio folks out there, take a moment to catch your breath and I’ll explain. With all three men in the race, Rubio will never see the nomination unless Trump drops dead of a heart attack. The polls, very accurate this year, say Rubio will not even win in Florida. Just to get out before facing that humiliation would be a smart move. But here is the kicker. If Cruz quits, a vast majority of his people will either go to Trump or walk away entirely. Rubio is too much tarred with McConnell and a business-as-usual congress. But if Rubio drops, and this must happen VERY soon, his folks will gravitate toward Cruz as a rebel type but not as crude as Trump. With the way Rubio is finally characterizing Trump, there is no way his supporters jump to Trump.
If Rubio can swallow his pride and see being Vice President as a better deal than going home after spending ALL his money and losing, then it is more than likely the Donald will be sidelined. And Rubio is still young enough to run as a sitting vice president later.
I have said the Hermanos Cubanos have been too clever by a half for several months in their decision-making. This concept cannot be faced with the same ineptitude. Egos must be set aside. Cruz needs to reach out to Rubio NOW! Rubio needs to take a day, buck up and accept. If we see Florida before this happens, Trump will have likely gained enough of a lead and momentum that he will be unstoppable.
Marco Rubio’s supporters can wish all they want. Marco will not win the nomination this year. It would be irresponsible to drag this out and lose the White House to Trump. It would be treasonous to hand BJ Bill’s wife the victory.
In my BLUF, I mentioned coattails. With the choices we have, we must have a backstop for the two crazies or real support for Cruz.
Starting with Cruz; he is the only one of the three that has a real agenda to pursue. He wants to create an environment where the economy can be cut loose to perform at the optimum.
In the case of Clinton, I know there are more than a few Democrats out there who won’t switch parties, but have real trepidation about sending someone who is clearly a felon to the White House. But since the FBI and DOJ are clearly slow-walking the investigations into her criminal activity, the Dems may get stuck with her as a nominee. The only way to control her corrupt impulses is through the use of the legislature. Everyone knows that the leadership of both parties is presently lazy and corrupt. But with a veto-proof Republican majority in congress, both sides would be forced to work together while controlling the felon.
As for Trump; this is a man who announces which journalists media outlets should fire. Their crime? Not praising Trump. He makes policy pronouncements based on who likes him and agrees with him. He has an ego infinitely larger than Obama’s, and BHO’s ego has been a huge problem. Where BHO fails, he simply weakens the rule of law and the Constitution. He feels entitled. Trump already talks of the White House as if it would be his throne. He is more likely to try to RULE by executive orders than BHO ever dreamed of doing. We also don’t know, to this day, if he isn’t just an alternative to Hillary who was asked to run (as a “Republican”) just in case she gets busted. The left would kiss his ass and get Supreme Court nominees and support for laws more to their liking. But the reality is, you don’t know if it ends there. With his ego and inability to understand nuance, he could be very dangerous. Anything he screwed up would be good news for Dems in 2018 and 2020. But they could also be catastrophic for the country. To prevent him from ordering the construction of a border wall, or changing of banking regulation, or an attack on Lithuania by presidential fiat, we would need a veto-proof Republican majority. Trump says he’ll repeal Obama’s executive orders. What idiot doesn’t know he’ll just undue the ones he doesn’t like and keep the rest to maintain his power. Congress will have to do it.
In 16 20 24:, I said that in order to wrest this country from the direction it is headed, the next president must execute that greatest surrender of power since Washington turned his sword over to congress. Neither Clinton nor Trump have it in them to do such a thing. Cruz might. But a huge Republican majority can simply demand it. The more fresh blood we get in there, the more determined the real rebels will be for such a showdown.